Ryan Fosso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ryan Fosso's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (1513 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1513 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 24)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €940k – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +11% (IQR -53% to +72%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1513 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | DM | 17 | 1513 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1317 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CM | 30 | 2563 | 84% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1320 | 1211 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malthe Højholt Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Samuel Bastien Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.2M | €1.1M | fell |
| Kenzo Goudmijn Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Umut Güneş Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €2.6M | €2.3M | flat |
| Melle Meulensteen Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €2.5M | rose |
| Deni Milosevic Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €1.9M | €550k | fell |
| Anders Christiansen Superliga · 2015 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.4M | rose |
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2020 | 22 | €1.8M | €4.7M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | Fortuna Sittard | Sturm Graz | €900k | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Vaduz | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | BSC YB U21 | FC Vaduz | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | BSC YB U18 | BSC YB U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | BSC YB U17 | BSC YB U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.