Cesare Casadei
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cesare Casadei's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-12.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-20.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-23.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (1990 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1990 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1419
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.4M – €23.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -52% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 33 | 1990 | 58% | 6 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1502 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 15 | 1023 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1473 | 1458 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 11 | 71 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1666 | 1629 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 3 | 200 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Domínguez Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Mattias Svanberg Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Jakub Jankto Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €9.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Stefano Sensi Serie A · 2019 | 24 | €18.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Junior Dina Ebimbe Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nabil Bentaleb Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €13.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2025 | Chelsea | Torino | €13.0M | €10.0M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Leicester | Chelsea | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Chelsea | Leicester | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Reading | Chelsea | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Chelsea | Reading | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 19 Aug 2022 | Inter | Chelsea | €14.9M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Inter U19 | Inter | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Inter U17 | Inter U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Inter Youth | Inter U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AC Cesena Youth | Inter Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.