Victor Bak

23 yrs · Left-back · Denmark
FC Midtjylland · Superliga · Foot: left · Height: 179 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€4.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€2.2M – €8.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.6M – €7.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.2M – €11.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.6M – €5.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.2M – €8.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.6M – €7.6M
Projected value (24 months)€3.2M – €11.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Victor Bak's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-7.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-11.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 70

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage54.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable22.7 years
Acquisition costUnfavorableest. €4.6M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery high+38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModeratebreakout probability 21%
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1604 (81% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
54 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1562
Opponent strength
1248
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
21%
Resale range (24m)
€3.2M – €11.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 41 pts; team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -51% to +79%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1604 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
24 (DEF)
Relative output kept
60%–139%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
71%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB21160481%120.170.09124815620.47
2024/25FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB1178840%110.230.12127313990.38
2023/24FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB423912%000.000.09138114490.48
2022/23FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB427814%000.000.06122313680.47

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland8727111508
2025/26Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland523910—
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland3174001300
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland10263001538
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland190011101
2024/25Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland26800—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Midtjylland111001317
2022/23Oddset PokalenHobro IK210700—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland268001639

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Valeriy Bondar
Premier Liga · 2023
24€5.0M€6.0Mrose
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin
Eredivisie · 2017
26€4.0M€1.3Mfell
Oleksandr Syrota
Premier Liga · 2022
22€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Sam Beukema
Eredivisie · 2023
25€4.5M€28.0Mrose
Carlos Cuesta
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
24€8.0M€7.0Mflat
Timothy Castagne
Jupiler Pro League · 2017
22€3.0M€18.0Mrose
Joshua Brenet
Eredivisie · 2018
24€5.0M€2.4Mfell
Killian Sardella
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
22€5.0M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jan 2024MafraMidtjyllandFree / loan€600k
3 Aug 2023MidtjyllandMafraFree / loan€300k
31 Dec 2022Hobro IKMidtjyllandFree / loan€150k
30 Aug 2022MidtjyllandHobro IKFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2021Midtjylland U19MidtjyllandUnknownData unavailable
1 Aug 2020FCM YouthMidtjylland U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.