
Victor Bak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Victor Bak's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-7.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-11.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €4.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1604 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1248
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €11.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 41 pts; team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -51% to +79%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1604 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 21 | 1604 | 81% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 1248 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 11 | 788 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 1273 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 4 | 239 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1381 | 1449 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 4 | 278 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1223 | 1368 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 727 | 1 | 1 | 1508 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 239 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 1300 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 263 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1101 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1317 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Hobro IK | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1639 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeriy Bondar Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Isimat-Mirin Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Oleksandr Syrota Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sam Beukema Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €4.5M | €28.0M | rose |
| Carlos Cuesta Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Timothy Castagne Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 22 | €3.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Joshua Brenet Eredivisie · 2018 | 24 | €5.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Killian Sardella Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2024 | Mafra | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €600k |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Midtjylland | Mafra | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Hobro IK | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Midtjylland | Hobro IK | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.