Raúl Moro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raúl Moro's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1185 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1185 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1417
- Opponent strength
- 1526
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; changed club; team strength up (+201 Elo); league level down (-97 Elo); relative output down 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +63% (IQR -28% to +204%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1185 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | LW | 14 | 623 | 18% | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 1526 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 14 | 562 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1243 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | LW | 33 | 2346 | 69% | 4 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 1505 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2021/22 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LW | 11 | 191 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 1445 | 1561 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LW | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1480 | 1548 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | SS | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 1694 | 1557 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1554 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Stojiljkovic Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ally Samatta Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €3.0M | €9.5M | rose |
| Richairo Zivkovic Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 22 | €2.5M | €650k | fell |
| Ahmed Hassan Liga Portugal · 2017 | 24 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Bouna Sarr Ligue 1 · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Albert Gudmundsson Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €2.4M | €30.0M | rose |
| Ezequiel Ponce Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Jens Odgaard Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Ajax | CA Osasuna | €5.0M | €7.0M |
| 15 Jul 2025 | Real Valladolid | Ajax | €11.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Lazio | Real Valladolid | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Valladolid | Lazio | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 17 Jul 2023 | Lazio | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Real Oviedo | Lazio | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 25 Jan 2023 | Lazio | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 24 Jan 2023 | Ternana | Lazio | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 23 Aug 2022 | Lazio | Ternana | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lazio U19 | Lazio | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Barça U18 | Lazio U19 | €6.0M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Espanyol Youth | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | G.Manresa Yth. | Espanyol Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.