Dean Henderson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dean Henderson's performance-implied value at EUR 22.5M-37.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.4M-38.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.4M-19.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.6M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1604
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.4M – €19.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -64% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1604 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1566 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | GK | 18 | 1620 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1620 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | GK | 18 | 1620 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1566 | 1433 | 1.23 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 13 | 1125 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1570 | 1741 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Sheffield United | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1587 | 1519 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1604 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 4 | 349 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €28.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Rui Patrício Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| José Sá Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Nick Pope Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Jordan Pickford Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| David Soria Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €14.5M | €8.0M | fell |
| David de Gea Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €65.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Tomáš Vaclík Laliga · 2019 | 30 | €18.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2023 | Man Utd | Crystal Palace | €17.5M | €18.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Nott'm Forest | Man Utd | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Man Utd | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Man Utd U23 | Man Utd | Unknown | €20.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Sheff Utd | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 26 Jul 2019 | Man Utd U23 | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 May 2019 | Sheff Utd | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Man Utd U23 | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 May 2018 | Shrewsbury | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 10 Jul 2017 | Man Utd U23 | Shrewsbury | Free / loan | €100k |
| 3 Feb 2017 | Grimsby Town | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Man Utd U23 | Grimsby Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2016 | Stockport | Man Utd U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Mar 2016 | Man Utd U21 | Stockport | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Feb 2016 | Stockport | Man Utd U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jan 2016 | Man Utd U21 | Stockport | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Man Utd Youth | Man Utd U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.