Urko González de Zárate
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Urko González de Zárate's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-5.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.2M-17.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.0M-17.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.50x the positional average in the league (2631 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.0M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2631 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1400
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.0M – €17.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; relative output down 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -61% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 35 | 2621 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1491 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1463 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 17 | 1382 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1536 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1401 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 5 | 154 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1452 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | DM | 2 | 46 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1535 | 1573 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1477 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boubakary Soumaré Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Youssef Maleh Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Santiago Ascacíbar Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Otávio Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Omar Mascarell Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Silva Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Fran Beltrán Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Hugo Magnetti Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | Real Sociedad | Espanyol | €5.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Espanyol | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 23 Jan 2025 | Real Sociedad | Espanyol | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €700k |
| 10 Jul 2020 | Real Sociedad C | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real Sociedad Y | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.