Yan Couto

24 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Brazil
Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 168 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€17.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€13.4M – €22.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€11.5M – €24.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€9.8M – €29.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€11.0M – €11.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€13.4M – €22.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€11.5M – €24.5M
Projected value (24 months)€9.8M – €29.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€17.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Yan Couto's performance-implied value at EUR 11.5M-24.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.4M-22.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.8M-29.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (995 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 44

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh82.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €16.9M vs market €17.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-5% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
995 (33% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.45
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
82 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1656
Opponent strength
1469
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€9.8M – €29.2M

Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM; relative output up 154% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR -13% to +47%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 995 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Borussia DortmundBundesligaRM1999533%230.450.21146916560.94
2024/25Borussia DortmundBundesligaRB2188729%000.000.05148416800.94
2023/24Girona FCLaligaRB34224466%1100.440.35149216211.00
2022/23Girona FCLaligaRB25115134%120.230.28157314580.98
2021/22SC BragaLiga PortugalRM28180159%130.200.20133015140.67

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund7416101553
2025/26Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund19000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund8229001701
2024/25Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund13101—
2023/24Copa Del ReyGirona FC523910—
2022/23Copa Del ReyGirona FC15800—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga9695001504

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Xherdan Shaqiri
Serie A · 2015
24€17.0M€15.0Mflat
Exequiel Palacios
Bundesliga · 2022
24€15.0M€45.0Mrose
Emil Holm
Serie A · 2024
24€12.0M€10.0Mflat
Gylfi Sigurdsson
Premier League · 2013
24€8.0M€11.0Mrose
Benjamin Henrichs
Bundesliga · 2022
25€14.0M€20.0Mrose
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Premier League · 2017
24€22.0M€35.0Mrose
Giovanni Fabbian
Serie A · 2024
21€14.0M€10.0Mfell
Aleksandr Golovin
Ligue 1 · 2022
26€25.0M€30.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Man CityDortmund€20.0M€20.0M
30 Jun 2025DortmundMan CityFree / loan€20.0M
3 Aug 2024Man CityDortmundFree / loan€25.0M
30 Jun 2024GironaMan CityFree / loan€25.0M
25 Jul 2022Man CityGironaFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2022BragaMan CityFree / loan€5.0M
21 Aug 2021Man CityBragaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2021GironaMan CityFree / loan€4.0M
25 Sept 2020Man CityGironaFree / loan€3.6M
1 Jul 2020Coritiba FCMan City€6.0M€3.6M
1 Jan 2020Coritiba U20Coritiba FCUnknown€1.0M

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.