
Yan Couto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yan Couto's performance-implied value at EUR 11.5M-24.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.4M-22.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.8M-29.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (995 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.9M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 995 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.8M – €29.2M
Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM; relative output up 154% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR -13% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 995 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RM | 19 | 995 | 33% | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 1469 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RB | 21 | 887 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1484 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Girona FC | Laliga | RB | 34 | 2244 | 66% | 1 | 10 | 0.44 | 0.35 | 1492 | 1621 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | RB | 25 | 1151 | 34% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 1573 | 1458 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RM | 28 | 1801 | 59% | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1330 | 1514 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 416 | 1 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 229 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 31 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 5 | 239 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 9 | 695 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xherdan Shaqiri Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Exequiel Palacios Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €15.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Emil Holm Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Gylfi Sigurdsson Premier League · 2013 | 24 | €8.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Benjamin Henrichs Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Giovanni Fabbian Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Golovin Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Man City | Dortmund | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Dortmund | Man City | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 3 Aug 2024 | Man City | Dortmund | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 25 Jul 2022 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Braga | Man City | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Man City | Braga | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 25 Sept 2020 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Coritiba FC | Man City | €6.0M | €3.6M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Coritiba U20 | Coritiba FC | Unknown | €1.0M |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.