Benjamin Sesko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Benjamin Sesko's performance-implied value at EUR 26.5M-62.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 59.1M-101.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 41.5M-97.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (1637 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €93.5M vs market €75.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1637 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.66
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1572
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €41.5M – €97.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club; team strength up (+182 Elo); league level up (+126 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -38% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1637 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | ST | 30 | 1637 | 48% | 11 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.53 | 1572 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 2398 | 78% | 13 | 5 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 1495 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 1528 | 50% | 14 | 2 | 0.94 | 0.51 | 1513 | 1692 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 521 | 4 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 339 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 403 | 2 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 100 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1817 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Gonçalo Guedes Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Jadon Sancho Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €45.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| João Félix Laliga · 2020 | 21 | €81.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Marcus Rashford Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €60.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €30.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Diogo Jota Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Allan Saint-Maximin Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €32.0M | €13.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | Leipzig | Man Utd | €76.5M | €70.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Salzburg | Leipzig | €31.6M | €24.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Salzburg | FC Liefering | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | NK Domzale U17 | Salzburg | €2.5M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NK Krsko U17 | NK Domzale U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.