Gorby
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gorby's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-9.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.6M-13.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.5M-19.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.35x the positional average in the league (1714 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.5M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1714 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1313
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.5M – €19.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -72% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1714 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 28 | 1714 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1313 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 24 | 1215 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1333 | 1478 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 7 | 107 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1314 | 1557 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 7 | 206 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 1312 | 1514 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 14 | 1099 | 1 | 1 | 1491 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 5 | 426 | 2 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 7 | 340 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 4 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 1369 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Nico González Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Anderson Esiti Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Franco Cervi Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Matías Kranevitter Premier Liga · 2018 | 25 | €7.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Tolga Cigerci Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
| Mathias Kjølø Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Volodymyr Shepelev Premier Liga · 2019 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Paços Ferreira | Braga | Free / loan | €750k |
| 7 Jul 2023 | Braga | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Dec 2021 | Braga B | Braga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Braga U23 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Braga U19 | Braga U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Aug 2019 | FC Nantes U17 | Braga U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.