Rafael Luís
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafael Luís's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-6.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-13.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-17.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.51x the positional average in the league (585 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 40th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €6.4M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 43% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 585 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1452
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 43%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €17.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +90% (IQR +2% to +169%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 585 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | DM | 12 | 585 | 19% | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 1452 | 1502 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hicham Boudaoui Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €3.6M | €6.5M | rose |
| Magomed Ozdoev Premier Liga · 2013 | 21 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Skelly Alvero Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Khalil Fayad Ligue 1 · 2023 | 19 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Lazar Samardžić Serie A · 2022 | 20 | €3.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Sofiane Boufal Ligue 1 · 2015 | 22 | €4.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Daniel Maldini Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €4.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Hernani Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | R. Strasbourg | Benfica B | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Benfica B | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.