
Eduardo Camavinga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eduardo Camavinga's performance-implied value at EUR 20.3M-55.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 35.6M-65.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.9M-62.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.34x the positional average in the league (1526 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €49.3M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1526 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.9M – €62.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -52% to +82%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1526 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CM | 29 | 1526 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1490 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CM | 19 | 1098 | 32% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1512 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CM | 31 | 1823 | 53% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1479 | 1867 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CM | 37 | 2002 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1480 | 1737 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CM | 26 | 1229 | 36% | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 1524 | 1812 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 4 | 142 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1368 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 35 | 2412 | 71% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1416 | 1445 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 25 | 2113 | 84% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1432 | 1507 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 7 | 364 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1447 | 1488 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 479 | 1 | 1 | 1625 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1753 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 9 | 496 | 0 | 0 | 1723 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 4 | 291 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 790 | 0 | 2 | 1719 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 721 | 0 | 1 | 1724 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Super Cup | Real Madrid | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 10 | 296 | 0 | 1 | 1692 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 3 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 331 | 0 | 1 | 1564 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 151 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2019/20 | Trophee Des Champions | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Melo Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Federico Valverde Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Ryan Gravenberch Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €35.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Sven Bender Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Pablo Barrios Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €25.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Adrien Rabiot Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €25.5M | €17.0M | fell |
| Mikel John Obi Premier League · 2013 | 26 | €23.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Curtis Jones Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2021 | Stade Rennais | Real Madrid | €31.0M | €55.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rennes U17 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.