Eduardo Camavinga

23 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · France
Real Madrid · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 182 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€50.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€35.6M – €65.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€20.3M – €55.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€20.9M – €62.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€45.6M – €19.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€35.6M – €65.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€20.3M – €55.5M
Projected value (24 months)€20.9M – €62.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€50.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Eduardo Camavinga's performance-implied value at EUR 20.3M-55.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 35.6M-65.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.9M-62.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.34x the positional average in the league (1526 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 15

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite90.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €49.3M vs market €50.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-29% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €100M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1526 (45% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
90 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1745
Opponent strength
1490
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€20.9M – €62.1M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 53% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -52% to +82%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1526 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real MadridLaligaCM29152645%100.060.07149017450.95
2024/25Real MadridLaligaCM19109832%120.250.15151217640.95
2023/24Real MadridLaligaCM31182353%020.100.09147918671.00
2022/23Real MadridLaligaCM37200259%010.040.06148017370.98
2021/22Real MadridLaligaCM26122936%210.220.14152418121.05
2021/22Stade Rennais FCLigue 1CM41424%000.000.16136815810.86
2020/21Stade Rennais FCLigue 1CM35241271%120.110.14141614450.75
2019/20Stade Rennais FCLigue 1DM25211384%120.130.11143215070.82
2018/19Stade Rennais FCLigue 1DM736411%000.000.07144714880.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11479111625
2025/26SupercopaReal Madrid2169001753
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Madrid12500—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid9496001723
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Madrid429110—
2024/25SupercopaReal Madrid2135001572
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11790021719
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Madrid216400—
2023/24SupercopaReal Madrid247001687
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11721011724
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Madrid657000—
2022/23SupercopaReal Madrid291001618
2022/23Uefa Super CupReal Madrid114001595
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid10296011692
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Madrid316400—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingStade Rennais FC229001507
2021/22SupercopaReal Madrid110001679
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueStade Rennais FC4331011564
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC4151001490
2019/20Trophee Des ChampionsStade Rennais FC190001714

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Arthur Melo
Serie A · 2021
25€40.0M€15.0Mfell
Federico Valverde
Laliga · 2022
24€70.0M€120Mrose
Ryan Gravenberch
Premier League · 2024
22€35.0M€80.0Mrose
Sven Bender
Bundesliga · 2014
25€18.0M€9.0Mfell
Pablo Barrios
Laliga · 2024
21€25.0M€55.0Mrose
Adrien Rabiot
Serie A · 2020
25€25.5M€17.0Mfell
Mikel John Obi
Premier League · 2013
26€23.0M€10.0Mfell
Curtis Jones
Premier League · 2024
23€35.0M€35.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Aug 2021Stade RennaisReal Madrid€31.0M€55.0M
1 Jan 2019Rennes BStade RennaisUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Rennes U17Rennes BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Rennes JugendRennes U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.