Ryan Gravenberch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ryan Gravenberch's performance-implied value at EUR 67.1M-94.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 59.4M-109.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 52.3M-97.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (2996 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €91.5M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2996 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1682
- Opponent strength
- 1588
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €52.3M – €97.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-117 Elo); relative output up 96% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -24% to +33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | DM | 36 | 2996 | 88% | 5 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 1588 | 1682 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | DM | 37 | 3169 | 93% | 0 | 4 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1546 | 1800 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CM | 26 | 1121 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1523 | 1755 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1380 | 1715 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 560 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1486 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 30 | 2213 | 72% | 2 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.12 | 1323 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 32 | 2615 | 85% | 3 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 1345 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 9 | 480 | 21% | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.14 | 1346 | 1680 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1669 | 1634 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 11 | 961 | 1 | 2 | 1666 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 3 | 261 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 174 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 9 | 784 | 0 | 0 | 1699 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 5 | 350 | 2 | 1 | 1555 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 2 | 121 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 6 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 106 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 703 | 0 | 1 | 1592 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 196 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 529 | 1 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | 1595 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 352 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 167 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €90.0M | €120M | rose |
| Moisés Caicedo Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €75.0M | €100M | rose |
| Rodri Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €80.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Rúben Neves Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Dele Alli Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €100M | €64.0M | fell |
| Christian Eriksen Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €100M | €40.0M | fell |
| Mason Mount Premier League · 2021 | 22 | €75.0M | €60.0M | fell |
| Paul Pogba Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €75.0M | €100M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Bayern Munich | Liverpool | €40.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax | Bayern Munich | €18.5M | €35.0M |
| 12 Sept 2019 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Zeeburgia Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.