Pablo Barrios
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Barrios's performance-implied value at EUR 17.3M-42.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 37.8M-68.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.3M-73.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.48x the positional average in the league (1666 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €53.9M vs market €55.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1666 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.3M – €73.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -37% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1666 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 23 | 1666 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1472 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 31 | 2337 | 68% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1502 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 24 | 1555 | 45% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1443 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CM | 21 | 714 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1523 | 1656 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 680 | 0 | 1 | 1677 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 106 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 431 | 0 | 0 | 1698 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 258 | 1 | 1 | 1693 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 194 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1697 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunus Musah Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Matteo Pessina Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Oscar Premier League · 2016 | 25 | €35.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Tyler Adams Bundesliga · 2022 | 23 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Julian Weigl Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €30.0M | €18.5M | fell |
| Mattéo Guendouzi Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €40.5M | €25.0M | fell |
| Boubacar Kamara Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €38.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €24.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2023 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Atl.Madleño U18 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Atl. Madrid U17 | Atl.Madleño U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | R.Madrid Yth. | Atlético Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.