
Elias Achouri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elias Achouri's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (1035 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1035 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1359
- Opponent strength
- 1251
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 78% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -66% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1035 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LW | 15 | 1035 | 52% | 3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 1251 | 1359 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LW | 15 | 870 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1273 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LW | 18 | 1361 | 69% | 3 | 9 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 1306 | 1517 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | LW | 15 | 717 | 36% | 4 | 4 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 1318 | 1327 | 0.47 |
| 2022/23 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | LW | 2 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1314 | 1252 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 7 | 430 | 1 | 1 | 1668 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Tunisia | 4 | 283 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 280 | 0 | 1 | 1385 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 266 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Tunisia | 3 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 289 | 0 | 0 | 1305 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 191 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 558 | 0 | 1 | 1714 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 5 | 219 | 1 | 1 | 1466 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 3 | 179 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Zinkovskiy Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Lazar Randjelovic Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €1.7M | flat |
| François Kamano Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Sory Kaba Superliga · 2023 | 28 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Maxi Gómez Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ahmed Musa Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €3.4M | €650k | fell |
| Waldemar Sobota Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2023 | Viborg FF | Copenhagen | €3.0M | €600k |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Estoril | Viborg FF | €269k | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Trofense | Estoril | Free / loan | €300k |
| 26 Aug 2021 | Estoril | Trofense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Estoril U23 | Estoril | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Guimarães B | Estoril U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Guimarães U23 | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vitória SC U19 | Guimarães U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | St-Étienne U17 | Vitória SC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.