Elias Achouri

27 yrs · Left winger · Tunisia
FC Copenhagen · Superliga · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€969k – €3.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€772k – €2.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €3.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.5M – €1.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€969k – €3.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€772k – €2.8M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €3.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Elias Achouri's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (1035 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 52

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average25th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.9M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-34% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1035 (52% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.35
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.26
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1359
Opponent strength
1251
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €3.2M

Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 78% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -66% to -27%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1035 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
20 (ATT)
Relative output kept
78%–121%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
65%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC CopenhagenSuperligaLW15103552%310.350.26125113590.47
2024/25FC CopenhagenSuperligaLW1587044%010.100.15127313990.38
2023/24FC CopenhagenSuperligaLW18136169%390.790.47130615170.48
2022/23Viborg FFSuperligaLW1571736%441.000.62131813270.47
2022/23GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalLW250%000.000.50131412520.68

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueFC Copenhagen7430111668
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsTunisia428320—
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Copenhagen4280011385
2025/26Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen426611—
2025/26World CupTunisia34100—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Copenhagen4289001305
2024/25Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen319100—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Copenhagen8558011714
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Copenhagen5219111466
2023/24Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen211600—
2022/23Oddset PokalenViborg FF317902—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Anton Zinkovskiy
Premier Liga · 2024
28€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Premier Liga · 2023
29€3.0M€4.0Mrose
Lazar Randjelovic
Premier Liga · 2024
27€1.8M€1.7Mflat
François Kamano
Premier Liga · 2022
26€5.0M€3.2Mfell
Sory Kaba
Superliga · 2023
28€2.8M€1.0Mfell
Maxi Gómez
Super Lig · 2023
27€7.0M€2.0Mfell
Ahmed Musa
Super Lig · 2022
30€3.4M€650kfell
Waldemar Sobota
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
27€2.0M€900kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jul 2023Viborg FFCopenhagen€3.0M€600k
31 Aug 2022EstorilViborg FF€269k€300k
30 Jun 2022TrofenseEstorilFree / loan€300k
26 Aug 2021EstorilTrofenseFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2021Estoril U23EstorilUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2020Guimarães BEstoril U23Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Guimarães U23Guimarães BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Vitória SC U19Guimarães U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016St-Étienne U17Vitória SC U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Elias Achouri · MoneyballAI