Lamare Bogarde
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lamare Bogarde's performance-implied value at EUR 14.5M-31.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.3M-27.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.1M-35.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.31x the positional average in the league (1048 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €20.8M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1048 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1615
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.1M – €35.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; role change RB -> DM; relative output down 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +75% (IQR -15% to +149%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1048 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | DM | 28 | 1048 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1615 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 8 | 475 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1543 | 1695 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 13 | 782 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 4 | 140 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gravenberch Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €35.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Tyler Adams Bundesliga · 2020 | 21 | €11.5M | €17.0M | rose |
| Harry Winks Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Marcos Llorente Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €20.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Harvey Elliott Premier League · 2023 | 20 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Scott McTominay Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €7.0M | €22.5M | rose |
| Oliver Skipp Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles Premier League · 2018 | 21 | €7.0M | €14.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Aston Villa U21 | Aston Villa | Unknown | €450k |
| 4 Jan 2024 | Bristol Rovers | Aston Villa U21 | Free / loan | €450k |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Aston Villa U21 | Bristol Rovers | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 May 2023 | Bristol Rovers | Aston Villa U21 | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Aston Villa U21 | Bristol Rovers | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Aston Villa U18 | Aston Villa U23 | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Feyenoord U17 | Aston Villa U18 | €600k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.