Cristhian Mosquera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cristhian Mosquera's performance-implied value at EUR 23.8M-52.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.6M-61.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.6M-67.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €48.0M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 989 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1618
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.6M – €67.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 68 pts; changed club; team strength up (+412 Elo); league level up (+125 Elo); relative output down 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +44% (IQR +11% to +94%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 989 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 20 | 989 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1618 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 37 | 3320 | 97% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1508 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3075 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1496 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 3 | 143 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1386 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 6 | 209 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1650 | 1487 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 9 | 493 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 295 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 177 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éder Militão Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €36.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Victor Lindelöf Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Lucas Digne Laliga · 2017 | 24 | €16.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Nélson Semedo Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €30.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| José María Giménez Laliga · 2017 | 22 | €28.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Sime Vrsaljko Laliga · 2017 | 25 | €16.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Theo Hernández Laliga · 2018 | 21 | €15.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Mario Hermoso Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Valencia | Arsenal | €15.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Valencia U18 | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hércules Alican | Valencia CF You | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.