Moustapha Mbow
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moustapha Mbow's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-7.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-13.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.9M-14.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.1M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2716 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1454
- Opponent strength
- 1465
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.9M – €14.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -41% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2716 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1465 | 1454 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 25 | 2214 | 72% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1329 | 1128 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germán Pezzella Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €13.0M | €14.5M | flat |
| Simon Kjær Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €8.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Santiago Bueno Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Kamil Glik Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Gabriel Paletta Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Waldemar Anton Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €9.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2023 | Stade Reims | Paris FC | €500k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | RFC Seraing | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Stade Reims | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Nîmes Olympique | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €600k |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Stade Reims | Nîmes Olympique | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Stade Reims B | Stade Reims | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Stade Reims U19 | Stade Reims B | Unknown | €50k |
| 16 Jan 2019 | AF Darou Salam | Stade Reims U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.