Cher Ndour
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cher Ndour's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-16.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.4M-29.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.5M-39.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1874 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €23.3M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 25% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1874 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 25%
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.5M – €39.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+76 Elo); league level up (+132 Elo); role change DM -> CM; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +39% (IQR +21% to +90%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 33 | 1874 | 55% | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1490 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 12 | 674 | 21% | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 1284 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 9 | 404 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1502 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 9 | 204 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.23 | 1499 | 1499 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1461 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | SS | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1395 | 1718 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 131 | 0 | 1 | 1212 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 7 | 377 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunus Musah Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Weston McKennie Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Julian Draxler Bundesliga · 2016 | 23 | €24.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Mateo Kovacic Serie A · 2014 | 20 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Maxime Lopez Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Ogenyi Onazi Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Nico González Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €15.5M | €60.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | PSG | Fiorentina | €5.0M | €4.0M |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Besiktas | PSG | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 13 Aug 2024 | PSG | Besiktas | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Braga | PSG | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 29 Jan 2024 | PSG | Braga | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 12 Jul 2023 | Benfica B | PSG | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Atalanta Youth | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Brescia Youth | Atalanta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.