Evgeniy Morozov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Evgeniy Morozov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1602 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1418
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -37% to +78%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1602 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1602 | 59% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 1322 | 1418 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 775 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1311 | 1413 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2183 | 81% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1336 | 1416 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | Fakel Voronezh | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2223 | 82% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1322 | 1239 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 5 | 419 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 3 | 208 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Hidde ter Avest Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Dennis Appiah Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Rafa Soares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Jordan Torunarigha Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sandy Walsh Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €1.4M | €2.0M | rose |
| Mads Bech Sørensen Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Wilson Manafá Liga Portugal · 2019 | 25 | €3.5M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Fakel Voronezh | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Loko Moscow | Fakel Voronezh | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Loko Moscow | Unknown | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Volgar | Loko-Kazanka M. | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Feb 2022 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Volgar | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Loko Moscow II | Loko-Kazanka M. | Unknown | €175k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.