Fabián Ruiz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabián Ruiz's performance-implied value at EUR 21.5M-39.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.8M-24.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.9M-16.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1129 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €11.8M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1129 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1445
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.9M – €16.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -76% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1129 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 20 | 1129 | 37% | 1 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.15 | 1445 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 30 | 1922 | 63% | 4 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.19 | 1442 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 21 | 1196 | 39% | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.17 | 1477 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 1898 | 55% | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 1419 | 1672 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CM | 32 | 2397 | 70% | 7 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.21 | 1460 | 1645 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CM | 33 | 2577 | 75% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1462 | 1643 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CM | 33 | 2689 | 79% | 3 | 6 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 1428 | 1588 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CM | 27 | 1991 | 58% | 5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 1462 | 1636 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2663 | 78% | 3 | 6 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 1562 | 1522 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 4 | 156 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1556 | 1419 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | AM | 12 | 431 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.45 | 1624 | 1468 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 555 | 1 | 1 | 1707 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Spain | 3 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 17 | 1152 | 1 | 4 | 1710 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 621 | 0 | 2 | 1686 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 237 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 5 | 377 | 0 | 1 | 1575 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 7 | 368 | 1 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 8 | 709 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 5 | 273 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 471 | 0 | 0 | 1698 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 5 | 443 | 1 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Martínez Bundesliga · 2019 | 31 | €27.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Arturo Vidal Bundesliga · 2018 | 31 | €35.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| James Rodríguez Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €50.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Claudio Marchisio Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €25.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Christian Eriksen Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Roberto Gagliardini Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €15.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Idrissa Gueye Ligue 1 · 2021 | 32 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2022 | Napoli | PSG | €22.5M | €55.0M |
| 5 Jul 2018 | Real Betis | Napoli | €30.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Elche CF | Real Betis | Free / loan | €500k |
| 2 Jan 2017 | Real Betis | Elche CF | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Betis B | Real Betis | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Betis U19 | Betis B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Real Betis Yth. | Betis U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.