Khéphren Thuram
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Khéphren Thuram's performance-implied value at EUR 16.4M-53.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.8M-45.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.6M-50.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (2453 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €35.1M vs market €38.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2453 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.6M – €50.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -26% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 35 | 2453 | 72% | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 1493 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 35 | 2329 | 68% | 4 | 6 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 1497 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 2114 | 69% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1476 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 35 | 2558 | 75% | 2 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 1435 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 36 | 1897 | 55% | 4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 1429 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 1491 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1428 | 1398 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 14 | 589 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1384 | 1456 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 593 | 1 | 2 | 1596 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 486 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 196 | 0 | 1 | 1517 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1449 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1745 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €40.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Weston McKennie Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €28.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Mattéo Guendouzi Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Angeliño Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €30.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Lewis Ferguson Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Lucas Paquetá Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Manuel Locatelli Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2024 | Nice | Juventus | €20.6M | €35.0M |
| 6 Jul 2019 | Monaco | Nice | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Monaco U19 | Monaco | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AS Monaco U17 | Monaco U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | ACBB Youth | AS Monaco U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.