Samuel Mbangula
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samuel Mbangula's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-9.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.4M-10.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-14.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1169 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.4M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1169 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €14.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; team strength down (-251 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -29% to +140%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1169 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LW | 26 | 1169 | 38% | 3 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.44 | 1494 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | LW | 23 | 699 | 20% | 3 | 4 | 0.90 | 0.48 | 1502 | 1629 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1641 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Skov Olsen Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €6.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Roberto Piccoli Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Josh Maja Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Abde Ezzalzouli Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Nathan Ngoumou Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Marco Richter Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Matthis Abline Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Tomas Cvancara Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | Juventus | Werder Bremen | €10.0M | €14.0M |
| 29 Aug 2024 | Juve Next Gen | Juventus | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Juventus U19 | Juve Next Gen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Juventus U17 | Juventus U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Anderlecht U18 | Juventus U17 | €390k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Club Brugge Yth | Anderlecht U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.