Diego Moreira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diego Moreira's performance-implied value at EUR 10.4M-22.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.7M-34.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.0M-41.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2045 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.5M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2045 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.0M – €41.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; role change LM -> RW; relative output down 22% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -41% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RW | 27 | 2045 | 67% | 4 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 1496 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LM | 32 | 2578 | 84% | 2 | 7 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 1454 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 7 | 271 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1499 | 1521 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 1 | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1333 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1409 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Nuamah Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Mauro Icardi Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €32.0M | €95.0M | rose |
| Amine Gouiri Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €42.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Folarin Balogun Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Jonathan Ikoné Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €36.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Kokorin Premier Liga · 2013 | 22 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Manolo Gabbiadini Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Steven Bergwijn Eredivisie · 2020 | 23 | €28.0M | €18.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2024 | Chelsea | R. Strasbourg | €8.5M | €3.0M |
| 22 Jan 2024 | Lyon | Chelsea | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Chelsea | Lyon | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica B | Chelsea | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | €750k |
| 20 Aug 2020 | Standard Yth | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.