Jarrad Branthwaite
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jarrad Branthwaite's performance-implied value at EUR 16.0M-38.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 30.1M-58.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.0M-44.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 89th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €47.6M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 681 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1593
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.0M – €44.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 53 pts; relative output up 144% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -53% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 681 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 10 | 681 | 20% | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 1593 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 30 | 2510 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1592 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3117 | 91% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1584 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 27 | 1989 | 65% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 1338 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 6 | 388 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 1600 | 1474 | 1.17 |
| 2019/20 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 4 | 299 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1496 | 1525 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 385 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 260 | 0 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Carlisle United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Pervis Estupiñán Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €30.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ben Godfrey Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €13.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Issa Diop Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Sven Botman Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Perr Schuurs Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Lisandro Martínez Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €45.0M | €40.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | PSV | Everton | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 17 Jul 2022 | Everton | PSV | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Blackburn | Everton | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 14 Jan 2021 | Everton | Blackburn | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 13 Jan 2020 | Carlisle United | Everton | €1.1M | Data unavailable |
| 26 Feb 2019 | Carlisle U18 | Carlisle United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.