David Møller Wolfe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Møller Wolfe's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-11.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-11.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-8.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.1M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1048 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1633
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €8.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 52 pts; changed club; league level up (+297 Elo); relative output up 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -56% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1048 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LB | 22 | 1048 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 1633 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2514 | 82% | 2 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 1301 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 34 | 2385 | 78% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1341 | 1441 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 182 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 163 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 892 | 1 | 1 | 1575 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 328 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 328 | 0 | 0 | 1268 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Björn Engels Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €9.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ben Godfrey Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €13.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Duje Caleta-Car Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €11.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Adam Masina Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €7.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Christian Kabasele Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €5.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Emil Krafth Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| DeAndre Yedlin Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €6.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | Wolves | €12.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | SK Brann | AZ Alkmaar | €3.9M | €2.5M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Brann II | SK Brann | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Åsane | Brann II | Free / loan | €200k |
| 13 Jul 2020 | Brann II | Åsane | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Bergen Nord | Brann II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.