Arseniy Batagov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arseniy Batagov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.2M-15.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.6M-15.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.3M vs market €11.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2115 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1368
- Opponent strength
- 1262
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.6M – €15.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; team strength up (+61 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -46% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | CB | 24 | 2115 | 69% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1262 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | CB | 18 | 1620 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1264 | 1307 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | CB | 24 | 2125 | 79% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1243 | 1235 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | CB | 30 | 2655 | 98% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1280 | 1406 | 0.38 |
| 2020/21 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | DM | 15 | 509 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1301 | 1283 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | DM | 11 | 683 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1350 | 1254 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1363 |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Dnipro-1 | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Dnipro-1 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attila Szalai Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Gerardo Arteaga Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Fatih Aksoy Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €3.8M | €2.3M | fell |
| Jailson Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Harold Moukoudi Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Dmitriy Skopintsev Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Giannis Michailidis Super League 1 · 2022 | 22 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2024 | Zorya Lugansk | Trabzonspor | €1.8M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | SC Dnipro-1 | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Polissya | SC Dnipro-1 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | SC Dnipro-1 | Polissya | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | SC Dnipro-1 U19 | SC Dnipro-1 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dnipro | SC Dnipro-1 U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Dnipro U17 | Dnipro | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.