Yasin Ayari
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yasin Ayari's performance-implied value at EUR 26.2M-46.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.3M-38.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.2M-50.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.37x the positional average in the league (1925 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €23.1M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1925 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1611
- Opponent strength
- 1578
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.2M – €50.4M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM; relative output up 94% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -55% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | DM | 29 | 1925 | 56% | 3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1578 | 1611 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | CM | 34 | 1968 | 58% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1551 | 1614 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | CM | 3 | 65 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1559 | 1619 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 3 | 259 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 185 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Blackburn Rovers | 3 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Allmänna Idrottsklubben | 5 | 341 | 1 | 0 | 1296 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Dele Alli Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €64.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Emile Smith Rowe Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Vitaly Janelt Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Max Meyer Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €15.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Denis Zakaria Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €36.0M | €27.0M | fell |
| Emiliano Buendía Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €32.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| James Maddison Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €55.0M | €60.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2024 | Blackburn | Brighton | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 5 Jan 2024 | Brighton | Blackburn | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 4 Jan 2024 | Coventry | Brighton | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Brighton | Coventry | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | AIK | Brighton | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 22 Oct 2021 | AIK U19 | AIK | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | AIK U17 | AIK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | AIK Yth. | AIK U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.