Jamie Gittens
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jamie Gittens's performance-implied value at EUR 14.6M-43.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.0M-42.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.2M-34.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (490 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 86.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.1M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 5% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 490 (14% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1512
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 5%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.2M – €34.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 44 pts; changed club; team strength down (-65 Elo); league level up (+126 Elo); relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -33% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 490 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LW | 16 | 490 | 14% | 0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 1512 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 32 | 1784 | 58% | 8 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.37 | 1483 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 25 | 1059 | 35% | 1 | 6 | 0.59 | 0.29 | 1504 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 15 | 527 | 17% | 3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.28 | 1451 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 4 | 133 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1487 | 1643 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 7 | 320 | 0 | 1 | 1568 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 14 | 848 | 4 | 1 | 1627 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 1676 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1652 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Scamacca Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Iker Muniain Laliga · 2016 | 24 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Yéremy Pino Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Christian Pulisic Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Daniel James Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Fábio Silva Premier League · 2022 | 20 | €15.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Steven Bergwijn Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €22.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Mason Greenwood Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €50.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Dortmund | Chelsea | €56.0M | €50.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | B. Dortmund U19 | Dortmund | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 17 Sept 2020 | Man City Youth | B. Dortmund U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Reading Yth. | Man City Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Chelsea Youth | Reading Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Reading Yth. | Chelsea Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.