Fábio Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fábio Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 8.5M-43.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.3M-30.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.2M-29.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (805 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 81.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €23.2M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 805 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.89
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.2M – €29.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; changed club; team strength up (+342 Elo); relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -32% to -0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 805 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 805 | 26% | 2 | 6 | 0.89 | 0.45 | 1507 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | UD Las Palmas | Laliga | ST | 24 | 1878 | 55% | 10 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 1511 | 1314 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 13 | 680 | 23% | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1220 | 1501 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | ST | 8 | 262 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1569 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 20 | 1503 | 49% | 7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 1316 | 1432 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | ST | 14 | 600 | 20% | 4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.32 | 1297 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | ST | 22 | 564 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1512 | 1508 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | ST | 32 | 1356 | 40% | 4 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 1566 | 1516 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 12 | 183 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.30 | 1339 | 1609 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 273 | 1 | 1 | 1604 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | UD Las Palmas | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 5 | 304 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 4 | 283 | 2 | 1 | 1486 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 115 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 56 | 1 | 1 | 1557 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 158 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 232 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1518 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manolo Gabbiadini Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €17.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Gerard Deulofeu Laliga · 2018 | 24 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Leon Bailey Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €29.5M | €25.0M | flat |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| André Schürrle Bundesliga · 2015 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Danny Welbeck Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Nicolò Zaniolo Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €27.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ferran Torres Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €30.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2025 | Wolves | Dortmund | €22.5M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | UD Las Palmas | Wolves | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Wolves | UD Las Palmas | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Rangers | Wolves | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Wolves | Rangers | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | PSV | Wolves | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 25 Jan 2023 | Wolves | PSV | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 24 Jan 2023 | RSC Anderlecht | Wolves | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 19 Jul 2022 | Wolves | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 5 Sept 2020 | Porto | Wolves | €40.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Porto U19 | Porto | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Porto U17 | FC Porto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U15 | FC Porto U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Porto Youth | Benfica U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.