Jan Jurcec
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jan Jurcec's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €591k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2700 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1219
- Opponent strength
- 1160
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €629k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 80 pts; relative output up 101% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -28% to +68%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | RB | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 1 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1160 | 1219 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | RB | 6 | 540 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1179 | 1237 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Gartenmann Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €700k | €1.5M | rose |
| Wajdi Kechrida Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Sergiy Chobotenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.1M | fell |
| Apostolos Diamantis Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Mykyta Burda Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Jacob Une Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Nazariy Muravskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €700k | €1.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2025 | Without Club | Kryvbas | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | SCR Altach | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 19 Jul 2022 | NK Kustosija | SCR Altach | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Kustosija U19 | NK Kustosija | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Kustosija U17 | Kustosija U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Kustosija Jgd | Kustosija U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Aug 2014 | Lokomotiva Yth. | Kustosija Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.