Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tim Jabol-Folcarelli's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-8.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-9.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (2330 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.8M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2330 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1368
- Opponent strength
- 1285
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €9.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -37% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | CM | 27 | 2330 | 76% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1285 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 7 | 351 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1229 | 1307 | 0.39 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Lewis Baker Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Dmitriy Barinov Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €11.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Pieter Gerkens Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| Alexandru Cicâldău Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Dorukhan Toköz Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €7.0M | €2.1M | fell |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Umut Güneş Super Lig · 2022 | 22 | €2.8M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2025 | AC Ajaccio | Trabzonspor | €1.0M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Le Puy Foot | AC Ajaccio | Free / loan | €500k |
| 20 Jan 2021 | Without Club | Le Puy Foot | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rennes B | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Neuweg | Rennes B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Mulhouse | Neuweg | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.