Chadi Riad
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Chadi Riad's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-19.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.2M-24.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.2M-22.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 80.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €18.3M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 554 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1604
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.2M – €22.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -60% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 554 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 9 | 554 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1604 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1530 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 26 | 2164 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1483 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1482 | 1696 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Morocco | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yerry Mina Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Daniel Amartey Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Tariq Lamptey Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Toti Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Chris Mepham Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €13.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Toni Lato Laliga · 2018 | 21 | €8.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Jack Hinshelwood Premier League · 2024 | 19 | €16.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Real Betis | Crystal Palace | €15.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Barcelona | Real Betis | €9.0M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Betis | Barcelona | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Barcelona | Real Betis | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Sabadell U19 | Barça U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2020 | Barça U19 | Sabadell U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 25 Jul 2019 | RCD Mallorca Yo | Barça U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.