Gabri Veiga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabri Veiga's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-19.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.6M-39.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.0M-49.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1623 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.1M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1623 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.67
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.0M – €49.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -20% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1623 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | AM | 31 | 1623 | 53% | 3 | 9 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 1319 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 1 | 17 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1455 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2313 | 68% | 11 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 1509 | 1441 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 6 | 117 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1678 | 1535 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 10 | 439 | 2 | 1 | 1477 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Wieffer Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Gastón Pereiro Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Yevgen Konoplyanka Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Luis Díaz Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €9.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Rafa Silva Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €24.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Fred Premier Liga · 2014 | 21 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Claudinho Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Sander Berge Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 21 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2025 | Al-Ahli | Porto | €15.0M | €18.0M |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Celta de Vigo | Al-Ahli | €30.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celta Vigo B | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.