Brajan Gruda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brajan Gruda's performance-implied value at EUR 18.2M-39.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.0M-37.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.9M-43.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1471 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.3M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1471 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.9M – €43.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; league level down (-42 Elo); role change RW -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -20% to +75%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1471 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 13 | 755 | 25% | 3 | 3 | 0.72 | 0.45 | 1475 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | RW | 18 | 716 | 21% | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 1574 | 1611 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | RW | 21 | 681 | 20% | 1 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.53 | 1613 | 1614 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 1650 | 54% | 4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 1527 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | AM | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1621 | 1496 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 123 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Draxler Bundesliga · 2016 | 23 | €24.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Jakub Moder Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Exequiel Palacios Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €15.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Sean Longstaff Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €17.5M | €13.0M | fell |
| Tariq Lamptey Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Adam Wharton Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Dennis Geiger Bundesliga · 2020 | 22 | €11.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Leipzig | Brighton | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Brighton | Leipzig | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 14 Aug 2024 | Mainz | Brighton | €31.5M | €20.0M |
| 18 Nov 2022 | Mainz 05 U19 | Mainz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Mainz 05 Yth. | Mainz 05 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Karlsruhe Yth. | Mainz 05 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Speyer 09 Jgd. | Karlsruhe Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.