Ilya Rozhkov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilya Rozhkov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-7.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-11.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (2165 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2165 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1332
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €11.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +33% (IQR -46% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LM | 28 | 2165 | 80% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1332 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LM | 27 | 2139 | 79% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1297 | 1322 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LM | 18 | 1349 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 1370 | 1271 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 7 | 405 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 4 | 281 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 3 | 137 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Assunção Liga Portugal · 2020 | 20 | €2.7M | €4.5M | rose |
| Filipe Soares Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ivan Oblyakov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Ryan Flamingo Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €7.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Mirko Topić Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Quinten Timber Eredivisie · 2022 | 21 | €4.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Joshua Kitolano Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Uche Agbo Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 23 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Akademia Rubin | Rubin Kazan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ak. Rubin U16 | Akademia Rubin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.