Anton Gaaei
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Anton Gaaei's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-7.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-6.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.7M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1793 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1278
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €6.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-99 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -49% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1793 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 26 | 1793 | 59% | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1278 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 25 | 1778 | 58% | 3 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 1272 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 25 | 1159 | 38% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 1356 | 1439 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | Viborg FF | Superliga | RM | 4 | 352 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 1230 | 1261 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | RB | 17 | 1444 | 73% | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1284 | 1327 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 7 | 491 | 1 | 1 | 1589 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 106 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 10 | 502 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1446 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 355 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 30 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Viborg FF | 5 | 331 | 0 | 0 | 1399 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 4 | 315 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 1 | 44 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleg Reabciuk Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Mujaid Sadick Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Attila Szalai Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Dmitriy Skopintsev Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Roberto Fernández Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Fabrice N'Sakala Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Tayyip Talha Sanuç Super Lig · 2023 | 24 | €4.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gerardo Arteaga Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2023 | Viborg FF | Ajax | €4.5M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Viborg FF U19 | Viborg FF | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Viborg FF Youth | Viborg FF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.