Daniele Ghilardi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniele Ghilardi's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-12.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.6M-26.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.0M-31.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.5M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1086 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.0M – €31.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; changed club; team strength up (+272 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -50% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1086 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1086 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1473 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 24 | 2030 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1466 | 1366 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Felipe Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Wallace Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Balerdi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Marash Kumbulla Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Kyle Walker Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €13.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Calum Chambers Premier League · 2018 | 23 | €14.0M | €14.5M | flat |
| Tin Jedvaj Bundesliga · 2016 | 21 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Hellas Verona | Roma | €8.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Roma | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Hellas Verona | Roma | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Sampdoria | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Hellas Verona | Sampdoria | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Mantova | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €500k |
| 17 Jul 2022 | Hellas Verona | Mantova | Free / loan | €250k |
| 16 Jul 2022 | Fiorentina | Hellas Verona | €5.6M | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Verona U19 | Fiorentina U19 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Fiorentina U19 | Verona U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Fiorentina U17 | Fiorentina U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Fiorentina Yth. | Fiorentina U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Lucchese Gio. | Fiorentina Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.