Ante Bekavac
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ante Bekavac's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €438k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1163 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1219
- Opponent strength
- 1149
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €344k – €883k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -39% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1163 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | LB | 19 | 1163 | 43% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 1149 | 1219 | 0.25 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slobodan Rubežić Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Corrie Ndaba Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €350k | €900k | rose |
| Vasyl Gakman Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Ramazan Civelek Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €800k | €850k | flat |
| Konstantinos Apostolakis Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €350k | €125k | fell |
| Salem M'Bakata Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Mykyta Kravchenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Tiago Santana Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | HSK Posusje | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €200k |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Croat. Zmijavci | HSK Posusje | Unknown | €250k |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Hajduk Split | Croat. Zmijavci | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Croat. Zmijavci | Hajduk Split | Free / loan | €200k |
| 9 Feb 2022 | Hajduk Split | Croat. Zmijavci | Free / loan | €200k |
| 8 Feb 2022 | NK Dugopolje | Hajduk Split | Free / loan | €200k |
| 21 Jul 2021 | Hajduk Split | NK Dugopolje | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hajduk Split II | Hajduk Split | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hajduk U19 | Hajduk Split II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hajduk U17 | Hajduk U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Aug 2016 | Adriatic Split | Hajduk Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Hajduk Yth. | Hajduk U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.