Vladislav Saus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vladislav Saus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1547 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.9M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1547 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1327
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -35% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1547 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | RM | 17 | 1530 | 57% | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1352 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 3 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1204 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1235 | 1582 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Van den Keybus Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Julien De Sart Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Gabriel Florentín Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Abu Francis Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Mihajlo Banjac Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.7M | flat |
| Show Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Kirill Shchetinin Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Paulinho Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2026 | Baltika | Spartak Moscow | €3.8M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Baltika | €720k | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Shinnik | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Free / loan | €275k |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Shinnik | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Zenit II | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | UOR-5 | Zenit II | €10k | €25k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | UOR-5 U17 | UOR-5 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.