Kévin Boma
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kévin Boma's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.0M-8.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-11.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €6.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1722 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1336
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €11.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; relative output up 91% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -49% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1722 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 21 | 1722 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1336 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2471 | 81% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1362 | 1302 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccieli Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Pedro Malheiro Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €5.5M | rose |
| Wilfried Kanon Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Dmitriy Skopintsev Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Bünyamin Balcı Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Daniil Khlusevich Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Daniel Muñoz Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Diogo Queirós Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 21 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Rodez AF | Estoril | €250k | €400k |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Angers SCO B | Rodez AF | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Tours FC U19 | Angers SCO B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | EA Guingamp U17 | Tours FC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | S. Poitevin Jgd | EA Guingamp U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.