Álex Valle
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Álex Valle's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-18.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.3M-20.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.3M-24.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €14.0M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2025 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1535
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.3M – €24.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+109 Elo); league level up (+84 Elo); relative output up 131% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -44% to +30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | LB | 28 | 2025 | 59% | 1 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1535 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | LB | 15 | 1034 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1524 | 1461 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 11 | 650 | 22% | 0 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.11 | 1167 | 1512 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 3 | 259 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 5 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1657 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Truffert Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Dani Vivian Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Tuta Bundesliga · 2022 | 23 | €13.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Panagiotis Retsos Bundesliga · 2018 | 20 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Victor Kristiansen Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Florenzi Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Mitchel Bakker Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €14.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Ferland Mendy Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Barcelona | Como | €6.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Como | Barcelona | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Barcelona | Como | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Celtic | Barcelona | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Barcelona | Celtic | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Levante | Barcelona | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Barcelona | Levante | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Andorra | Barça Atlètic | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Barça Atlètic | FC Andorra | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Jul 2020 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sant Gabriel | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.