Lesley Ugochukwu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lesley Ugochukwu's performance-implied value at EUR 10.3M-36.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.6M-30.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.1M-29.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.79x the positional average in the league (2351 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €22.8M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2351 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1601
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.1M – €29.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; changed club; team strength up (+66 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -52% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | DM | 35 | 2351 | 69% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1601 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Southampton FC | Premier League | DM | 26 | 1663 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1572 | 1277 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | DM | 12 | 297 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1540 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 26 | 1328 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1488 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 18 | 397 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 1385 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | DM | 3 | 64 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1730 | 1445 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 149 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 7 | 501 | 0 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Luiz Premier League · 2020 | 22 | €18.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| James McAtee Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Ryan Sessegnon Premier League · 2019 | 19 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Víctor Camarasa Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €10.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Todd Cantwell Premier League · 2020 | 22 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Adel Taarabt Premier League · 2013 | 24 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Marcus Tavernier Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Lazar Samardžić Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | Chelsea | Burnley | €28.7M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Southampton | Chelsea | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Chelsea | Southampton | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Stade Rennais | Chelsea | €27.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rennes U19 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Rennes U17 | Rennes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.