Luca Stephenson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luca Stephenson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (2562 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €806k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2562 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1223
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €612k – €2.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +43% (IQR +0% to +162%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 29 | 2562 | 86% | 5 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 1223 | 1177 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 31 | 2405 | 81% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1252 | 1193 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 3 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yegor Tverdokhlib Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €600k | €1.5M | rose |
| Leighton Clarkson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Kenny McLean Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 23 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Talles Brener Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Victor Torp Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €450k | €800k | rose |
| Dmytro Kryskiv Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €500k | €7.0M | rose |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Stuart Bannigan Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 23 | €350k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Dundee United | Liverpool U21 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 14 Aug 2025 | Liverpool U21 | Dundee United | Free / loan | €850k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Dundee United | Liverpool U21 | Free / loan | €850k |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Liverpool U21 | Dundee United | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 May 2024 | Barrow | Liverpool U21 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Liverpool U21 | Barrow | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Liverpool U18 | Liverpool U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Liverpool Youth | Liverpool U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2018 | Sunderland Yth. | Liverpool Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.