Yegor Tverdokhlib
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yegor Tverdokhlib's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (1994 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €994k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1994 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.68
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1227
- Opponent strength
- 1161
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €900k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -60% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | AM | 15 | 1339 | 50% | 7 | 4 | 0.74 | 0.58 | 1161 | 1219 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | ST | 11 | 655 | 24% | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 1167 | 1242 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1596 | 59% | 14 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.64 | 1177 | 1237 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Minaj | Premier Liga | AM | 15 | 1326 | 49% | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 1269 | 1128 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | AM | 7 | 252 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 1300 | 1294 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | FC Minaj | Premier Liga | AM | 30 | 2502 | 93% | 5 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 1298 | 1175 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | LNZ Cherkasy | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 1 | 61 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Kozak Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.2M | €7.5M | rose |
| Artem Chelyadin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Calem Nieuwenhof Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Marko Jevtovic Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €2.1M | €850k | fell |
| Oleksiy Gutsulyak Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Hamidou Traore Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | Kryvbas | LNZ Cherkasy | €1.5M | €1.8M |
| 10 Jan 2024 | FC Minaj | Kryvbas | €300k | €500k |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Girnyk-Sport | FC Minaj | Free / loan | €125k |
| 19 Jan 2020 | Atlet Kyiv | Girnyk-Sport | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Chayka | Atlet Kyiv | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.