João Gomes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Gomes's performance-implied value at EUR 13.2M-34.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.3M-55.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.0M-51.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (2835 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €42.4M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2835 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1613
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.0M – €51.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-77 Elo); role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -49% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | DM | 35 | 2835 | 83% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1613 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 36 | 2989 | 87% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1576 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 34 | 2659 | 78% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1575 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 11 | 651 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1549 | 1497 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 241 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 252 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 189 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nunes Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Rico Henry Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Sander Berge Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Cheick Doucouré Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Stanislav Lobotka Laliga · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Mauro Arambarri Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €20.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Douglas Luiz Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Davy Pröpper Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2023 | Flamengo | Wolves | €18.7M | €15.0M |
| 19 Feb 2021 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Flamengo U17 | Flamengo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.