Kévin Danois
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kévin Danois's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-15.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.0M-28.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.6M-33.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (2839 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €22.2M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2839 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.6M – €33.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 45 pts; relative output up 80% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -13% to +73%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2839 | 93% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1477 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | CM | 22 | 1459 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1466 | 1393 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | AM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1222 | 1314 | 0.82 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sander Berge Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 22 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Enzo Le Fée Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Habib Diarra Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €18.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Jordan Veretout Ligue 1 · 2015 | 22 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Manuel Locatelli Serie A · 2020 | 22 | €15.5M | €35.0M | rose |
| Maxime Lopez Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Wilfried Singo Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Ivan Ilić Serie A · 2022 | 21 | €14.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | AJ Auxerre B | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AJ Auxerre U17 | AJ Auxerre B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AJ Auxerre Yth. | AJ Auxerre U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.