Habib Diarra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Habib Diarra's performance-implied value at EUR 13.5M-38.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.1M-46.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.8M-54.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.76x the positional average in the league (1409 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €38.1M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1409 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1593
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.8M – €54.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; changed club; league level up (+149 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -20% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1409 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | CM | 20 | 1409 | 41% | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 1593 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 30 | 2357 | 77% | 4 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 1470 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 2313 | 76% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1487 | 1393 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | AM | 29 | 1628 | 48% | 3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 1470 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | AM | 4 | 107 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1372 | 1503 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 4 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 154 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 2 | 71 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu Bundesliga · 2017 | 23 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Manuel Lanzini Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Mitchell Weiser Bundesliga · 2017 | 23 | €9.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| James Ward-Prowse Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €18.0M | €14.5M | flat |
| Óscar Rodríguez Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €11.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| James Maddison Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €55.0M | €60.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Sunderland | €31.5M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Strasbourg U19 | R. Strasbourg | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Strasbourg U17 | Strasbourg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Strasbourg Yth. | Strasbourg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Mulhouse Jgd. | Strasbourg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.