Arijon Ibrahimovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arijon Ibrahimovic's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-17.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.8M-18.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.7M-25.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2181 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2181 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.7M – €25.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -45% to +70%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | LW | 32 | 2181 | 71% | 2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 1495 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | AM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1586 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1413 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Frosinone Calcio | Serie A | LW | 16 | 471 | 14% | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 1467 | 1308 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | AM | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1410 | 1817 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 165 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Frosinone Calcio | 2 | 123 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Iturbe Serie A · 2014 | 21 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Fran Pérez Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Steve Mounié Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €5.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Diego López Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo De Paul Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €4.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Lucca Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Cameron Archer Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nathanaël Mbuku Ligue 1 · 2021 | 19 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Heidenheim | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Bayern Munich | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Lazio | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Bayern Munich | Lazio | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Frosinone | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Bayern Munich | Frosinone | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 17 Jan 2023 | FC Bayern U19 | Bayern Munich | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Nürnberg Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Gr. Fürth Yth. | Nürnberg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.