Cristian Volpato
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cristian Volpato's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.9M-14.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.6M-19.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.57x the positional average in the league (1064 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.7M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1064 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.6M – €19.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -67% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1064 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RW | 24 | 1064 | 31% | 2 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 1509 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2023/24 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | AM | 22 | 633 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 1502 | 1330 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 7 | 223 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.38 | 1450 | 1578 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Australia | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 3 | 193 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 3 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 1389 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Bilal Touré Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Mohamed Bamba Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Scamacca Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Largie Ramazani Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Dawid Kownacki Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Keita Baldé Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €16.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Patrik Schick Serie A · 2017 | 21 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Roma | Sassuolo | €7.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Oct 2022 | Roma U19 | Roma | Unknown | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Roma U18 | Roma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Roma U17 | Roma U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jan 2020 | West Sydney Yth | Roma U17 | €116k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.