Mohamed Amoura
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mohamed Amoura's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-19.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.9M-24.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.4M-22.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (1928 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.6M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1928 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.59
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.4M – €22.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength down (-66 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -54% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 1928 | 63% | 8 | 4 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 1485 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 2486 | 81% | 10 | 12 | 0.80 | 0.68 | 1505 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 23 | 1441 | 53% | 17 | 2 | 1.19 | 0.68 | 1379 | 1589 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Algeria | 4 | 371 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Algeria | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 244 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 439 | 2 | 1 | 1624 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Mayoral Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Duván Zapata Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €20.0M | €36.0M | rose |
| Armand Laurienté Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Musa Barrow Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Yannick Bolasie Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Riccardo Orsolini Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Lucas Boyé Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mousa Tamari Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Union SG | Wolfsburg | €14.8M | €32.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Wolfsburg | Union SG | Free / loan | €32.0M |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Union SG | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 18 Aug 2023 | FC Lugano | Union SG | €4.0M | €2.0M |
| 29 Aug 2021 | ES Sétif | FC Lugano | €1.2M | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | ES Sétif U21 | ES Sétif | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.